Joseph Aoun, Lebanon’s new president, how will he transform the country — amid rising geopolitical frictions in the Middle East?
After General Joseph Aoun was elected president, the Lebanese political game will change and local and international actors are expecting that this shift of leadership will bring repercussions.
This new chapter also arrives as Lebanon remains engulfed in a profound economic crisis, political deadlock and regional turbulence.
These developments loom large for the U.S., as they bear on both Lebanon’s internal equilibrium and the broader regional balance of power. In this post, we will explore Joseph Aoun’s leadership journey, situate the regional context around his presidency, and offer pragmatic lessons for U.S. policymakers to best navigate this transition.
About General Joseph Aoun:
Joseph Aoun, the former Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), is a new president of Lebanon, the 2025 Lebanese presidential election has shown.
In that vein, his military and leadership background is widely known — both in and out of Lebanon — as the U.S. and other countries have engaged moderately with him as he is perceived as a unifier for an otherwise fractured state.
Aoun is also interested in the presence of the military in the training of the Lebanese military as well as in delivery deployment for the operations of military throughout his military career. Paradoxically, his alignment with Western interests, particularly U.S. interests, makes him appear a stabilizing factor in Lebanon, especially given Washington’s record of military assistance to the LAF.
Aoun, who is pragmatic and resilient, has guided Lebanon through a series of security trials during his time in the presidency, including flare-ups with the armed Hezbollah movement, clashes with extremist groups and major humanitarian emergencies.
His presidency was seen as an opportunity for fresh engagement with the United States, which has long supported the LAF as a counter to Hezbollah’s rising strength.
But U.S. policymakers will need to wrestle with the tension between their support for Aoun’s leadership of Lebanon and the political and military reality of Hezbollah’s entrenchment in Lebanese society.
Regional context and challenges:
Lebanon’s troubles are deeply connected to larger currents in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The country has also remained in the grip of an economic crisis that has deepened further with the collapse of the Lebanese pound, runaway inflation and its inability to access international financial assistance.
which in turn continues to threaten the country’s stability. Simultaneously, a sectarian political paralysis in Lebanon has paralyzed effective government. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that is a powerful political and military force in Lebanon, further complicates the road to recovery.
Broader regional context features a wrenching shift in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, most notably a recent rapprochement between the two heavyweights, that will have spillover effects on Lebanon.
Lebanon's political direction under Aoun will be crucial in establishing how Lebanon will lie in the regional alignment of representatives of wider Arab interests versus being within the geographic staging area of forces aligned with Iran, via Hezbollah, in the country.
This continuing role of the U.S., while key to this regional recalibration, arrives at a frustrating moment of heightened disengagement from the Middle East that is creating both opportunities and challenges for bolstering Lebanon’s stability and sovereignty.
U.S. Lebanon Relations: The future of U.S.-Lebanon relations under Joseph Aoun will depend on his governance style and priorities.
Frame BufferTime in History, the U.S. favorite military assist used to, if it included LAF Funding and Noor Rabwah in support counterterrorism efforts, go to Lebanon.
Aoun’s close relations with the military make him a crucial ally in U.S. efforts to curb Hezbollah’s influence and protect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
But this should now force U.S.-policy makers to reckon with how to walk a tightrope of supporting Aoun’s government while managing the difficulties presented by Hezbollah’s dynamics.
Aoun’s administration could take a more realistic view on how to deal with regional and international powers, unlike its predecessors.
But the key question is whether Aoun’s presidency will make a real difference in the power calculus between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, or if the group’s dominance will continue to loom large over Lebanon’s future.
What the U.S. Can Do: Actionable Steps: Joseph Aoun’s election is a pivotal opportunity for American policymakers to fix U.S. foreign policy in Lebanon and the Middle East. Here are some tips to help you get started:
Lebanon's Economic Recovery: The U.S. assistance should target Lebanon’s economic recovery, particularly in partnership with a multilateral framework, such as the IMF and the World Bank.
In particular, strategic investment in Lebanese infrastructure, energy and financial sectors could stabilize the country and provide a foundation for future growth.
But, wherever we need to be, History, as in the case of Egypt, where the U.S. has supported and encouraged economic reforms and fuzzy investment infrastructure, demonstrates that such focused investment yields political stability and lessens the possibility of extremism.
Strengthening Democratic Institutions: American aid should focus on helping Lebanon’s democratic institutions, particularly as they relate to electoral reform, the fight against corruption, and empowering civil society.
Supporting grassroots movements and local governance could foster a system of governance in Lebanon that restores faith in its political apparatus.
Technical Assistance: The U.S. bolstered democratic transitions in Tunisia, where post-Arab Spring technical assistance in the elections process and civil society engagement stabilized the country.
Containing Hezbollah's Power: With Hezbollah now contesting for power there, and despite U.S. support for Aoun’s election as president, the U.S. really can’t afford to be soft in its engagement by trying to limit Hezbollah’s military capabilities and political power.
This may include greater intelligence-sharing, continued arms transfers to the LAF, and sanctioning of Hezbollah’s financial networks.
Example: A possible model for Lebanon is the U.S. policy in Iraq of countering Iranian influence through support for Iraqi security forces while acting to restrict Tehran’s military presence in the country.
Regional Diplomacy: Respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty, and support for that sovereignty against Iranian-overseen (or -supported) external interference will also require engaging regional powers (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, etc.).
The United States ought to facilitate discussion among these regional players to stabilize Lebanon and reinsert it into the Arab world.
Real-Life Example: The Abraham Accords demonstrate how diplomatic engagement can lay the foundation for regional cooperation that would serve Lebanon’s future, as it has in that instance, by the U.S.
Conclusion General Joseph Aoun’s presidency around Lebanon’s past, with enormous implications for U.S. foreign policy and regional security. (KSMC)·
If Only We Could Help Lebanon to Hope Relying on an American Agenda of Sovereignty is not an Agenda of Sovereignty Nothing stronger than actionable strategies around how the U.S. can leverage the many portends of crises facing Lebanon with a view towards creating a better, stronger, and more sovereign Lebanon.
Once the crisis has left its cause of 'low expectations'. With the advent of this new phase for Lebanon, U.S. policymakers should first take stock of the changing regional landscape, and then ensure that their engagement with Aoun’s incoming government channels Lebanon’s economy and long-term stability in a positive direction.
The question is whether this leadership change will open a path forward to a safer, be stuck forever in the struggles of the previous generation. It’s up to U.S. policymakers to shape that future.
